CPA predicting double digit growth in construction

CPA predicting double digit growth in construction

BLOG · BY TTF HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND TRADE NICK BOULTON · 27 July 2021

The Construction Products Association (CPA) is forecasting construction output to grow by 14% during 2021, in a tick of confidence for our industry.

In line with their previous forecasts, UK economic activity continues to recover in line with the CPA’s ‘W’-shaped forecast as social distancing restrictions have eased. Whilst in construction, activity recovered in line with the CPA’s ‘V’-shaped forecast as it remained largely unaffected by the second and third national lockdowns.

Infrastructure and private housing are expected to be the key drivers of recovery in 2021 – up 23.4% and 24% respectively, and have strong growth projected into 2021. However, even with this growth the CPA is saying that construction output will not return to 2019 levels till next year due to concerns over the cost and availability of labour and imported products supply.

These are both areas we have discussed recently, with the shortage of Heavy Good Vehicles (HGV) drivers of particular concern. The report goes on to highlight that the number of EU construction workers in UK construction have fallen by 42% between 2017 Q4 and 2020 Q4.

Even before 2017, a looming labour crisis was being highlighted, but now with the affects of Brexit and the pandemic this issue is likely to become even more acute. This is clearly going to be a major issue for the Government to address.

Supply, demand and pricing we also recently analysed with the Confederation of Timber Industries and Swedish Wood in a market statement, which we trust you have found useful in addressing some of your customers concerns. The CPA is predicting a similar pattern as to when some of these tensions in the market may ease.

We encourage you to read the full Summer Forecast, which is available to TTF members on our website. Members are also able to attend tomorrow’s CPA webinar which will explore the forecast in greater detail.

Wishing you all a great week.

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